COP29: A pre-event primer for advocates

Introduction

The next Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, or COP29, will take place from November 11 to November 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. COP29 has been dubbed the “finance COP”, with mounting pressure on parties to deliver much needed financing to support countries, especially low- and middle-income countries, in tackling climate change and its impacts.

This Donor Tracker Insight is a primer for global development advocates on key climate issues and programming at COP29.

The context of COP29

COP29 will take place against the backdrop of major political and geopolitical issues spanning the globe, with ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. The COP29 presidency has therefore launched a call for a “COP Truce” during the two weeks in Baku, as a voluntary declaration which will highlight the “interplay between conflict and climate change and emphasize the imperative of finding collective solutions to protect”. Whether such a declaration will receive major backing amongst world leaders, or be seen as a hollow attempt to garner support, remains to be seen. In addition, the world’s two largest sources of ODA, the US and Germany, both face significant political transitions in the coming months following Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, and the prospect of a new coalition and early elections in Germany. As it stands, over 100 world leaders are expected to attend and participate in this year’s COP, slightly down from last year’s attendance.

What key issues should global development advocates watch?

COP29 proceedings will thus no doubt be imbued with these recent political upheavals and geopolitical challenges. In terms of what is on the table, the COP29 presidency has put forward several key priorities for proceedings, with climate finance high on the agenda, and other global issues such as energy, agriculture, cities, and human development also up for discussion.

For a reminder on the highlights from COP28 in Dubai in 2023, read our piece "COP28: Key takeaways and opportunities for advocates".

New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance

Parties are set to agree to a NCQG for climate finance at COP29. Meetings in Baku mark the culmination of the ad-hoc programme on the NCQG from 2022 to 2024, with 11 Technical Expert Dialogues attended by academia, civil society actors (including youth), and private sector actors, as well as three high-level ministerial dialogues, to facilitate high-level political engagement. The African Group of Negotiators is demanding mobilized climate finance of no less than US$1.3 trillion annually.

Key decisions for parties to make at COP29 include:

• The structure of the NCQG and its thematic scope;
• Whether the NCQG would have sub-goals for mitigation, adaptation, and potentially loss and damage;
• The timeframe of the goal, i.e., whether it would be an annual goal, or a goal for 2030, or even 2035;
• The contributors to the NCQG, i.e., whether it would expand the base of contributors from current ‘developed countries’, or Annex I countries, to also include ‘developing countries’; and
• The quality of finance and transparency mechanisms to track progress on delivering the NCQG.

Discussions around the NCQG are closely linked to calls for an expansion of the sources of financing from traditional donors to include emerging economies, as well as the private sector. These calls are happening in the context of shrinking ODA budgets across traditional donor markets, with the EU planning to cut EUR2 billion (US$2.2 billion) from the foreign aid budget, Germany proposing an almost EUR1 billion (US$1.1 billion) cut to the BMZ in 2025, and France’s announced cut of EUR1.1 billion (US$1.2 billion) cut in ODA in 2025.

Therefore, while the need for an increase in climate and development finance is universally welcomed, experts have highlighted that this needs to occur in combination with reforms to the international financial architecture, including but not limited to MDB reform and fairer rules around debt sustainability. Mia Mottley, Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Barbados, and Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, recently echoed this sentiment in an Op-Ed for Le Monde newspaper, titled “COP29: The need to reform the global financial architecture has become even clearer”. Other fora, such as the G21, continue to push this message, with the group releasing a Communique from the Finance Ministers meeting at the end of October, stating that they are “firmly committed to the timely implementation of international financial reforms and reaffirm the importance of strong prudential standards for banks”. Advocates should therefore use the spotlight on the NCQG and climate finance more generally to highlight the need for financial reform to ensure that financing reaches those most vulnerable to climate change.

Adaptation

The framework for the GGA was finally agreed upon at COP28, after many years of slow progress. There are now 11 adaptation targets that will be operationalized at COP30 in Brazil next year, including targets on themes such as water, biodiversity, food, and health. To analyze countries’ progress towards achieving these targets, the UNFCCC has been collating several thousand suggested indicators, received from parties and non-party stakeholders such as UN bodies. At COP29, parties will discuss which indicators are best suited to effectively measure adaptation in diverse contexts around the world. Parties have until COP30 next year in Brazil to decide on a concrete set of GGA indicators, leaving countries with minimal time to agree on a set of indicators that can be analyzed at the global level. Experts have argued that while COP28 marked a successful step forward for adaptation, COP29 must align adaptation finance with broader goals under the NCQG, and parties need to get a lot more specific on quantifiable targets and means of implementation for the GGA.

Spotlights on other issues linked to climate action

Beyond the presidency’s emphasis on the climate-peace nexus, the interlinkages of climate with other key issues, such as global health, agriculture, gender equality, and children and youth, will be brought to the forefront of proceedings. For example, COP29 aims to integrate global health across the proceedings, reflecting the “interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health”, under the WHO One Health approach. The WHO and the COP29 presidency recently announced several health initiatives for COP29, with a focus on human health. This includes the COP29 Baku Initiative on Human Development for Climate Resilience and COP29 Health Day (18th November).

National Determined Contributions (NDC) submissions

The next deadline for countries to submit updated NDCs is approaching in 2025, where countries outline their ambitions and commitments to climate action, with the latter often conditional on international climate finance support. Advocates therefore have the opportunity to push countries, especially high-income economies, to increase both ambition and finance commitments. The first global stocktake, which took place last year and assessed global efforts and progress, concluded that while efforts have been made, progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement are still insufficient. Several key takeaways include those on mitigation, which state that the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory is “not in line with Paris Agreement and there is a rapidly narrowing window for action”. The UNFCCC stocktake also notes that the climate finance gap now stands at US$5.8-5.9 trillion, and stresses the need for “new and additional grant-based, highly concessional finance and non-debt instruments”. Therefore, there is much for parties to consider as they develop their second NDCs by COP30.

What tools are available for advocates?

Policy updates

Our policy updates comprise weekly analyses of current events in five sectors across the 14 largest OECD DAC countries, including participation and commitments at events like COP29.

Climate sector deep dive

The Donor Tracker’s Climate Sector Deep Dive provides an overview of global ODA for climate, including recent trends, political priorities, and more.

COP29 coverage

Advocates can find the detailed COP program here. UNFCCC will broadcast some side events through its channels. It will be possible to follow most debates online.